Scientists look to Bali volcano for clues to curb climate change

 

원본 기사 : http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/scientists-look-to-bali-volcano-for-clues-to-curb-climate-change

 

OSLO (REUTERS) - Climate scientists are tracking an erupting volcano on the Indonesian holiday island of Bali

for clues about a possible short-cut to curb global warming by injecting sun-dimming chemicals high above the Earth.

 

Volcanoes are emerging as natural laboratories to mimic"geo-engineering", the idea that

governments could deliberately add a veil of sulphur dioxide high above the planet as an artificial sunshade

to curb man-made global warming.

 

Ash and smoke ejected so far by the Agung volcano, which has been erupting in recent days,

has not been big enough or high enough in the atmosphere to cool world temperatures.

But scientists say they are studying what would happen if the volcano has a repeat of a far bigger eruption in 1963.

 

"I've been doing some Bali simulations with the UK Met office climate model as 'what ifs',

and also some geo-engineering simulations," said Jim Haywood,

professor of atmospheric science at the University of Exeter.

 

He estimated that Agung spewed 8 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere in 1963,

about 10-15 km above the Earth's surface, enough to trim world temperatures for months.

That eruption killed more than 1,000 people in Bali.

 

"Many scientists are keeping an eye on the Agung eruption in Bali," said Alan Robock,

a professor of climate science at Rutgers University.

"Volcanic eruptions serve as an analogue for the idea of humans creating such a cloud."

 

Satellite measurements of eruptions have only recently become precise enough to exploit volcanoes

as models for geo-engineering.That was impossible, for instance, when Mount Pinatubo

in the Philippines erupted in 1991 and blew about 20 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere,

the second biggest eruption of the 20th century after one in Alaska in 1912.

 

Mount Pinatubo had a cooling effect on the Earth because the sun-dimming sulphur spread worldwide.

"Since Pinatubo we've got a lot better" at measuring the effects of big eruptions,

said Matthew Watson of the University of Bristol. "We're waiting for something to happen on a scale

where we can start thinking about what it means for geo-engineering."

 

He estimated that the Agung volcano has probably ejected only about 10,000 tonnes of sulphur dioxide

in the latest eruption, and not as high as the stratosphere.

 

Governments agree they should focus most on cutting greenhouse gas emissions

under the 2015 Paris agreement rather than on science-fiction-like short-cuts to limit temperatures

blamed for causing more heatwaves, floods and rising sea levels.

 

But current policies put the world on track to overshoot the Paris goal of limiting rising temperatures to

"well below" 2 deg C above pre-industrial times.

 

US President Donald Trump, who doubts man-made emissions are the prime cause of warming,

also plans to pull out of the Paris deal and promote the US fossil fuel industry.

That risks further weakening the Paris plan.

 

 

최근에 발리의 화산이 분출한 사건을 많은 분들이 아실겁니다. 그 여파로 한국정부에서는 발리에서

귀국하지 못하는 국민들을 위해 특별 항공기를 발리로 보냈을 정도로 큰 자연재해였습니다.

 

이 발리의 아궁화산의 폭발과 기후변화를 엮은 기사가 있었습니다.

과학자들이 화산이 폭발했을 때 발생하는 막대한 연기와 재들이 하늘을 가려 햇빛의 영향을 최소화함으로써

지구의 온도를 낮춰 기후변화 방지에 이용할 수 있다는 것입니다. 

 

이 것은 지구공학(Geoengineering)에서 이용하는 방법인데, 이번 화산 사건은 아궁화산의 역대로 가장 컸던

1963년의 규모만큼은 안되지만 이러한 방법 고안의 연구를 할 수 있는 좋은 기회였다고 합니다.

 

이 방법이 주목 받는 이유는, 파리 기후협정에서 체결한 석탄 사용을 줄여 상승온도를 2도 이하로 낮추는

기존 방법이 트럼프 대통령의 협정 탈퇴 등의 리스크로 인한 효과에 대한 의문으로 더욱 주목받는 것이라 합니다.

 

그러나 제 개인적인 생각은 과연 이것이 효과적인 방법일 것인가 입니다. 이 기술의 진보가 아직

높은 수준에 도달해있지 않고, 언제 실질적으로 사용가능한 기술 수준으로 발전할 것인지에 대한

확실성이 없기 때문입니다.

 

사진 및 기사 출처 : Scientists look to Bali volcano for clues to curb climate change. (2017, December 1). Straits times. Retrieved from http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/scientists-look-to-bali-volcano-for-clues-to-curb-climate-change