What will Brexit mean for the climate?

 

 

원본 기사 : http://theconversation.com/what-will-brexit-mean-for-the-climate-clue-it-doesnt-look-good-87476

 

With Brexit negotiations stuck on divorce bills and borders, complex issues such as climate change

barely receive a mention. Yet the UK has agreements with the EU around emissions targets and technology transfer,

and Brexit represents a significant threat to the UK’s progress on cutting carbon emissions.

 

The UK’s recent clean growth strategy document devotes scant attention to Brexit, providing only a single page on

“leaving the European Union”. Yet, other public institutions, as well as the mainstream media, have raised questions

concerning climate change, Brexit and the UK government’s attitude.

 

The TRANSrisk project is studying risk and uncertainty in low carbon transitions across the globe.

Since our inception in 2015, Brexit has introduced a significant new area of uncertainty,

with three key issues emerging.

These are the UK’s future within a) the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

(including the Paris Agreement); b) the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS); and

c) the EURATOM nuclear research and training programme.

 

Alone in Paris

 

The UK has been a champion for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, to date the UK has acted

within the UNFCCC as part of a single entity – the EU.

Adherence to the Paris Agreement was established by a single decision binding all 28 members,

and the EU has presented a common Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

declaring its ambitions to reduce emissions.

 

After Brexit, the UK will need to establish up its own position within the UNFCCC as an independent member.

It will have to ratify the Paris Agreement on its own, and produce its individual NDC.

Whilst this is achievable, time, space and resources will be required. The delay could possibly leave the UK behind

compared to other international actors.

 

Exiting the EU-ETS is another serious issue. It is the world’s oldest and largest emissions trading scheme

and is the primary joint tool adopted by the EU to reduce carbon. The scheme allocates free and/or

auctioned allowances to operators, and creates a market for those who wish to purchase or sell allowances.

A shrinking cap for allowances reduces emissions over time, directing efforts to where emission cuts

are most cost effective. The EU-ETS has also triggered growth in climate-related financial services.

 

The EU-ETS had multiple benefits for the UK. It has helped the UK meet its ambitious emissions targets,

while allowing heavy emitters to keep operating by purchasing relatively cheap allowances

from other European countries. Moreover, London’s role as financial hub has made it

the largest EU-ETS exchange market, giving the UK a leading role in climate-related financial services.

 

 

The UK may establish its own national ETS, but there is huge uncertainty over timing, size, shape and effectiveness.

This is highly detrimental for UK companies subject to the EU-ETS

that will lose access to the system from January 2018, hence facing significant cost increases

for their emissions reductions. In addition, London may lose its leading position in climate related-financial services.

 

The market

 

Market size – which contributes to liquidity, stability and efficiency

– represents a final threat for both EU and the UK, with the former losing one of the EU-ETS’s largest actors

and the latter facing the risk of setting up an unworkably small national system.

 

International agreements provide hope for avoiding the worst outcomes. Several scholars identified Article 6

of the Paris Agreement as the tool for linking independent ETS. Under Article 6, we can conceive an interconnection

of an UK-ETS and EU-ETS. This could lead to further market linkages between the two in sectors

including energy, manufacturing and finance, helping to define new economic relationships

between the UK and the EU.

 

EURATOM, meanwhile, is Europe’s coordinating agency for civil nuclear development and is

one of the oldest institutions of the EU. Over the decades, EURATOM has led to

a highly interconnected implementation of nuclear technologies and facilities.

Brexit will trigger the UK’s automatic exclusion from EURATOM, creating an urgent need to agree new arrangements.

 

UK clean energy strategy relies heavily upon nuclear – and a hard exit from EURATOM would deal

a huge blow to the sector. Strategic partnerships with European actors may be lost including EDF,

the technology provider for the Hinkley Point C plant currently under construction.

It also poses a threat to British companies in the sector (for example, Rolls Royce),

challenging the fundamental sustainability of the UK nuclear programme.

 

Space for hope … and fear

 

The magnitude of these threats is unclear at the present stage of Brexit negotiations,

but the current absence of climate change from the negotiation table is itself a reason for worry.

Nevertheless, Brexit creates opportunities as well as threats. The UK will be free to build on its history

as a climate champion by developing stable growth based upon a “clean” pathway.

With a supportive domestic market, UK providers of clean energy systems could find lucrative markets abroad.

 

Yet, any possible solution to Brexit-related climate change issues lies in the hands of those charged

with the whole Brexit process. Prominent supporters of Brexit, including current UK ministers,

have declared their scepticism towards the anthropogenic origins of climate change,

raising further doubts about the chance for a positive handling of the climate issue within Brexit debate.

 

 

영국에서 브렉시트를 선언한 뒤, 줄곧 브렉시트는 EU에서 가장 주목받는 이슈 중 하나입니다.

이 기사는 영국이 브렉시트를 하게 되면서 기후변화에 대한 영국의 정책 재정립의 필요성을 강조하는 내용입니다.

영국이 EU에 속해있는 동안 EU의 구성원으로서 파리 기후협약 등에 가입하는 등, 다른 EU국가들과 공통적으로

적용되던 이러한 법률 등을 브렉시트로 인해 영국은 개별적으로 새로 다시 가입을 해야하는 이슈가 발생한 것입니다.

 

그뿐만 아니라, EU-ETS을 통해 받던 혜택들도 자연스럽게 소멸하게 되었습니다.

영국은 EU-ETS를 통해 그동안 탄소방출 제한 목표량을 달성해왔는데, 이제는 그 혜택도 누릴 수 없다는 의미입니다.

 

또다른 혜택 소멸의 예로, EURATOM의 탈퇴가 있습니다. 영국은 그동안 클린에너지 전략으로 주로 원자력을

이용하였으나, EURATOM의 탈퇴로 인해 영국은 그들의 기존 클린에너지 전략을 불가피하게 수정하거나

다른 방법을 이용해야 될 것으로 보입니다.

 

브렉시트로 영국은 그동안 EU 국가들과 함께 처리하던 모든 업무와 협약 등을 개별적으로 하게 되었습니다.

이 상황을 무조건적으로 좋다 또는 나쁘다라고 결론 낼 수는 없겠지만, 적어도 기후변화 분야에 관련해서는

부정적인 상황으로 보입니다. 브렉시트의 후속대책으로, 기후변화 관련 분야보다는 그들이 더 중요하다고 생각하는

다른 분야에 먼저 신경을 써서 기후변화 관련 정책은 후순위로 밀려나 아직 그에대한 대처가 늦는 것처럼 보이는데,

안타깝게도 기후변화는 영국을 기다려줄만큼 여유롭고 자비로운 문제가 아니라는 것입니다. 

 

 

* EU-ETS (EU Emission Trading Scheme, 유럽연합 배출권거래제도) : EU국가내 산업체들이 EU의 온실가스

감축목표에 근거하여 배출권을 할당받고 이를 서로 거래하는 제도로서, 현재 탄소관련 시장중 가장 규모가 큰 시장임.

* EURATOM (European Atomic Energy Community, 유럽원자력공동체) : 1958년 1월 로마협정에 따라 설립한

유럽의 핵관리회의체이며, 원자력의 평화적 이용을 추진과 더불어 모든 과학기술을 연구하는 기관임.

 

사진 및 기사 출처 : Stua, M., & Dearnley, E. (2017, December 1). What will Brexit mean for the climate? (Clue: it doesn’t look good) . Retrieved from http://theconversation.com/what-will-brexit-mean-for-the-climate-clue-it-doesnt-look-good-87476